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BKEB34591 The Black Swan
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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb


  • Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd (2008/2/28)
  • ISBN: 9780141034591
  • Size: 3 x 12.5 x 19.3 cm



What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying 

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